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Global Toy Market 2025: Headwinds & Tailwinds

Global Toy Market 2025: Headwinds & Tailwinds

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GLOBAL TOY MARKET 2025: HEADWINDS & TAILWINDS

Happy New Year to readers of this newsletter, I hope 2025 is a great year for you all.

And as we head into this New Year it’s time to assess the factors affecting the Global Toy market in 2025. There’s a lot going on. One mistake would be to simplify things to a simple narrative of good versus bad years, but the reality of every year is that many companies and brands are up, and many are down, so a proper analysis should look at the positive and negative factors.


Looking into 2025 there is an interesting mix of factors and pressures likely to have an impact on our industry.

 

STACKED MOVIE SLATE FOR 2025

One definite tailwind heading into 2025 is a MUCH stronger movie slate. Following the well publicised disruption to cinematic output due to strikes in Hollywood in 2023, both the strength and number of movies released in 2024 was affected and this clearly had a big impact on the Toy industry. Traditionally going back in time to the pre social media and content proliferation times, a strong year for movies could increase the global market for Toys by high single figures percentages, and a weak year could move the needle just as far in the opposite direction. And, despite all the other forms of media available to consumers today, the movie slate is still a significant factor for driving Toy sales. In major English language speaking markets like the UK and the USA, more than 25% of Toys sold are licensed, and movie licenses are usually a big part of that.


The really good news for 2025 is that the movie slate for ‘Toyetic’ entertainment is very strong. The most important corporate movie studio for Toys is The Walt Disney Company, and their 2025 slate is good, with A Captain America movie hitting in Q1. There’s also a live action movie based on the much-revered Lilo & Stitch franchise landing in May – Hasbro’s range of Lilo & Stitch Toys which launched in 2002 was one of the first Toy ranges I worked on and has fond memories for me!


Following that there is a new Pixar movie – ELIO due to release in June 2025. Pixar has produced so many massive hits which have been very significant for Toy sales over the years, and often Pixar produces surprise hits, so let’s wait and see on this one. Following Disney’s acquisition of 20th Century Fox, they will also bring out a new movie featuring The Fantastic Four in July 2025, this will be an interesting opportunity for Disney to re-establish The Four as a major cinematic franchise. Following this there are also new instalments of Zootopia, Tron and Avatar.


There are of course other major movie studios, we’re not going to list all forthcoming movies for 2025, but some highlights include a Gabby’s Dollhouse movie and a new How To Train Your Dragon instalment.


In summary, while 2024 left many license focused Toy companies and retailers with a sales gap, 2025 should be much stronger, which represents a definite tailwind for 2025.

 

KIDULT MARKET REACHING MATURITY, OR FURTHER ROOM FOR GROWTH?

One of the biggest trends in the Toy business in the last 5 years or so has been the recognition of the ‘Kidult’ Toy market and the growth in this category. In November 2024, Circana reported that the UK Kidult market is now worth over £1bn British Pounds, which equates to nearly £1 in every £ spent on Toys in the UK (read Circana’s press release here): https://www.circana.com/intelligence/press-releases/2024/toying-with-tradition-nostalgic-kidults-fuel-1bn-surge-as-uk-gears-up-for-record-christmas-sales/


Let’s just take a moment to consider that fact – nearly 1/3rd of the UK Toy market sales is now driven by Kidults. That is an incredible stat. I remember one of my first ever research projects for Hasbro back at the turn of the millennium was interviewing Adult Action Man Collectors. And back then, collecting Toy effigies of a topless muscular man was anything but mainstream for adults. Fast forward to today and we are truly in a new age.


When I walked round UK retail in December, it was really amazing to see the diversity of retailers now stocking Toys. Three particular highlights I observed: GAME (video Game store), HMV (general entertainment) & Sports Direct (sports clothing & equipment chain). All 3 of these retailers now have a significant Toy selection, much of which is clearly targeted at Adults.


The question though is how much further growth will be found in this space. All trends eventually reach their peak, and while I think there may be 1-2 years more growth via Kidults, we’re not looking at an endless upwards curve of growth.


One example from 2024 which really surprised me though was an item I saw on Hasbro Pulse – this is Hasbro’s own mostly Kidult targeted D2C channel. They had a $200 GI Joe vehicle of some description – and I was dubious as to how many of these they could possibly expect to sell – I mean a $200 vehicle; how many people are looking for that? And the reality was so far removed from what my limited imagination could think of – because there were 20,000+ people already signed up when I checked – so we’re looking at a $4m+ product with very high margins due to no retailers being involved, with virtually zero inventory risk as you only produce what has been ordered on that kind of product. Obviously if you have powerful brands like Hasbro, or like Mattel are deploying via their Mattel Creations platform then these opportunities are more lucrative of course.


One of the problems for some companies also is that some Toy categories transfer more easily to the Kidult space than others. If you have been making ELA products for toddlers, you have a bigger leap to make than a company focused on Action Figures. And if you don’t own any brands then you would need to license them in for the Kidult space which is going to affect profitability.


Nevertheless, the whole Kidult ‘thang’ is here to stay, and as such is such a significant part of the market now that is shouldn’t be ignored or dismissed as non-core.

 

COST OF LIVING/PRESSURE ON CONSUMER SPENDING

The most recent US inflation figure I can find at the time of writing is for November 2024 putting the key rate at 2.7%, which is below the historical average, and as such appears to bring us to the end of the inflationary cycle caused by COVID-19 and all that came with and from that. So does that mean that consumers are now aflush with cash and spending like crazy – no it does not! The reality is that it does typically take a few years to rebalance wages with high inflation. So it’s not like we suddenly went from ultra depressed consumer spending to book conditions, but the economic pressure is not as strong as it was heading into 2023 and to a lesser degree 2024.


As such we should expect something more like ‘normal’ (if there is such a thing) consumer attitudes and behaviours in 2025 unless we hit some other unexpected ‘Black Swan’ event.

I would say that while we’re not likely going to see a strong tailwind on consumer spending in 2025, we should at least see positive momentum in terms of the removal of the headwinds which caused so many problems, especially in Q4 2022 when consumer demand completely failed to show up at the Toy aisle in a manner I had not seen before in 25 years in the Game.

 

ONGOING LOW BIRTH RATES

One ongoing headwind for the world of Toys which it would be completely remiss of us not to look at is the birth rates in major Toy markets - which are frankly discouraging. The global birth rate currently sits around 2.25 according to the United Nations. That means 2.25 children born per woman globally, this is just above ‘replacement rate’ where population sustains and slightly grows. BUT the major issue is that most of the growth in population is currently coming out of Africa. The major Toy markets are not on a positive trend for birth rates – in Asia: Japan, China and South Korea have dreadful birth rates – South Korea’s rate plunged to 0.72 births per woman in 2023, with China (the world’s 2nd biggest toy market) sitting at a chronically unhealthy 1.45. In 2022, the countries of the European Union had an average birth rate of 1.46. In 2023 the U.K. hit a record low birth rate of 1.44. The USA (the world’s biggest and most important Toy market was at 1.78 for 2023, which is better than many others but still not great.


Why do all these gloomy demographic numbers matter? Well, we’ll look at one last metric to explain that – total global births peaked in 2012 at 146 million new Toy consumers being born. In 2023 that number was 132 million – which is a 10% reduction in the number of consumers to sell Toys to. In that circumstance, the only way to maintain market size is to either a). sell more Toys or more value to the same number of kids and families b). Sell more Toys to adults. So in other words, the considerable growth of the ‘Kidult’ space over the last decade or so has considerably masked a reduction in kids for us to supply with Toys.

The bottom line: negative birth rate trends are acting as a long term drag on the Toy business.

 

WHERE’S THE LONG-TERM GROWTH COMING FROM?

So the question becomes where is there any long-term growth to be had, if the Kidult space is maturing and if there are fewer kids for us to sell Toys to? Well, the logical answer to that is to look to under developed markets. 25 years ago when I worked for Hasbro, I remember a lot of talk about China’s growing domestic Toy market, and how important that could become. Lego has invested a lot of time, money and resources in establishing a large network of 480 Lego stores across China, as a result China is now a highly significant market for Lego.


Here’s the key question: Which countries/regions in the world with a lot of kids have been so far under served for Toys? There are only two answers of any scale: 1. India   2. Africa.

Let’s look at India first, with a population of c. 1.4 billion, India is the only nation which can rival China for number of people. India has around 25 million new babies born each year, which to put it in context significantly outweighs the mere 3.6m born each year in the USA. Clearly the difference is wealth, and disposable income, but India’s economy is fast on the rise with projections for it to become the number 3 or even potentially number 2 economy in the world by 2050.


India’s domestic Toy market is currently comparatively small with c. $400m USD in ‘official’ channel sales, and about 3 times that in more informal sales channels. But the point is growth potential, as per Lego’s investment in China which began several decades ago leading to a major market position today, so those moving now can grow alongside India’s economic growth in the next decade or two. Believe me when I say India is not an easy market – I have been working there for just over a decade, so I can confirm from hard earnt experience it isn’t easy, but whereas else can you expect to see high growth in a country with a massive number of under-served children?India represents the global Toy market’s biggest growth opportunity right now, and as such it is worth embracing the opportunity if you can afford to get in there early and develop a position while the market grows – just don’t expect it be easy!


Secondly, Africa has a high birth rate and has been under-served for Toys historically. I can’t claim to be an expert on anything to do with Africa, even grouping this gigantic continent into one entity is an insult to the diversity and scale of this place. But while India’s economy is set to rocket, I have not found any evidence of such growth coming from Africa – if any one reading this has the evidence to prove otherwise, please feel free to prove me wrong!

 

THE RETURN OF PRESIDENT TRUMP

Well we got a long way into this newsletter without mentioning ‘The Don’, but now it’s time to discuss the disruptive force which is a Trump Presidency. I’m going to skip U.S. domestic politics because there are better sources to advise you on that. The one area though which seems set to be very disrupted is Sourcing, with Trump threatening heavy punitive tariffs on China, as well as some other countries closer to home i.e. Mexico. If heavy tariffs were imposed on imports from China & Mexico, it could be really bad for the Toy business. Like all things with Trump, what he says, or I guess more accurately what he threatens is not always the same as what he does. In some ways we have to admire his ability to get results and movement from other parties through threats and bluster without having to do anything too drastic – so hopefully the tariffs will not come to the Toy aisles, or at least if they do it’s on a much smaller scale than has been threatened.


But, hope is not a strategy! We have been very busy since Trump was re-elected helping clients to access the factories we rep for offering diversification away from China. We can expect to see an acceleration in production moving away from China due to the threat of tariffs and trade wars, this acceleration is regardless of the reality of whether tariffs are imposed or not, because businesses are now operating with a risk mitigation mindset.

 

2024 GOES DOWN AS THE YEAR WITHOUT ‘WOW’ IN THE TOY AISLES, HOW ABOUT 2025?

The most consistent gripe I have heard from Toy retailers about 2024 is the lack of any special ‘WOW’ to act as the high tide to raise all ships, such as we saw with major fads and trends in some previous years.


Although I don’t try to view all the new Toy lines any more, because the offering is too vast for my peanut brain to absorb, I am hearing that the 2025 product development output is much stronger versus 2024. We should expect more investment into building ‘WOW’ factor products without licenses attached. Only a fool would try to predict when the next major trend will come along, but we can easily predict stronger investment in product innovation for 2025, which along side a much stronger movie slate this year should create more buzz for retail in 2025, and if we should happen to get a new mega trend then that would be extra gravy!

 

CONCLUSION: GLOBAL TOY MARKET 2025, UP OR DOWN?

Based on the analysis above, we’re optimistically predicting mid-single digit growth in the Global Toy market in 2025, but as ever, this could be a great year for your company or a terrible one based on your product lines and sales efforts – good luck to everyone in turning 2025 into a very good year!

 

FACTORIES WE REPRESENT

We represent the following factories both in and outside of China. All of these factories have the necessary certifications, have capacity, have a history of successfully supplying other Toy & Game companies:

Games factory in Vietnam – supplying cardboard, wood & plastic Games.

Games factory in India – supplying major Toy & Game companies with cardboard & plastic games.

Plastic & Electronic Toy Factory in India – major supplier, having supplied 4 out of 5 of the world’s biggest Toy Cos.

Plush factory in India - leading Plush factory with strong R&D skills.

Plastic Toy Factory in China (managed from Hong Kong) – strong track record of decades of supplying Toy companies around the world.

Board Games supplier in China – I have worked with this vendor for 20 years, they have supplied dozens of major & minor customers of mine.

If you would like more information on any of these factories or if you need help with a strategic approach to Sourcing or want to find specific factory types, please feel free to drop me a message.

 

BOARD GAME SALES REPRESENTATION

We are representing a number of strong selling Games for international markets with established consumer demand in one or more markets. If you’re seeking proven Games to sell in your market/s please feel free to get in touch to arrange a meeting at one of the upcoming shows!

 

TOY & GAME BUSINESS CONSULTANCY

In the nearly 15 years I have been Consulting for, we have advised hundreds of companies, set up distribution into most major markets and helped to accelerate our client’s growth. For more information on how we can help, check out our services here: www.KidsBrandInsight.com/services 

 

The BOARD GAME BIZ Podcast

Exciting news for the Games business, our all-new BOARD GAME BIZ podcast has now gone live, with 8 Episodes available covering a wide range of commercial topics relating to the business of Board aka Tabletop Games.

If you want to check out this new podcast series, just click here to listen!

 

EPISODE 1 - OVERVIEW OF THE BOARD GAME BUSINESS

In Episode 1, we start with a comprehensive overview of the Board Games business. We explore the key components that drive the board game market. Whether you're an aspiring game creator, a Game entrepreneur, a seasoned professional, or simply a Board Game enthusiast, this episode will provide valuable insights into the commercial intricacies of the industry.

 

EPISODE 2 - UNDERSTANDING HOW BOARD GAMES RETAIL WORKS

Navigating the retail landscape can be complex, but it's essential for the success of any board game. From selecting the right distribution channels to understanding retail pricing strategies, we'll cover it all. We'll also discuss how to establish and maintain relationships with retailers, the importance of packaging and shelf appeal, and how to leverage retail data to boost your game’s performance.

 

Whether you're a game developer looking to get your product on store shelves or a retailer wanting to enhance your board game offerings, this episode is packed with valuable insights to help you succeed. Let’s dive into the world of board games retail and uncover the strategies that can make your game a hit!

 

EPISODE 3 - THE MANY BENEFITS OF PLAYING BOARD GAMES

Board games are not just about fun and entertainment—they offer a multitude of benefits that can enrich people's lives in various ways. From fostering social connections and improving cognitive skills to reducing stress and enhancing creativity, the impact of board games goes far beyond the gaming table. We'll uncover how playing board games can strengthen family bonds, develop strategic thinking, and even boost mental health.

Whether you're a casual player, a dedicated gamer, or someone interested in the positive effects of board games, this episode is packed with insights that will make you appreciate the true value of this timeless hobby. We feel it's important to run through these very many benefits of Games so that you feel real motivation to sell more Games, the more Games you sell, and the more Games people play, the better we do for humanity!

 

EPISODE 4 - 5 COMMON REASONS WHY PEOPLE FAIL TO GET THEIR GAME TO MARKET

Bringing a board game to market can be an exciting yet challenging journey. Many aspiring game designers face obstacles that prevent their game from reaching store shelves. Today, we'll explore the top five reasons why these efforts often fall short. From common pitfalls in game design and production issues to marketing mistakes and distribution challenges, we'll provide valuable insights to help you avoid these traps and successfully launch your game.

 

EPISODE 5 - HOW TO SELL BOARD GAMES

Today, we'll explore the essential steps to successfully market and sell your board game. From understanding your target audience and crafting compelling pitches to leveraging social media and maximizing retail opportunities, we'll cover all the bases. We'll also discuss common pitfalls and how to avoid them, ensuring that your game not only reaches the market but thrives.

 Whether you're a newcomer eager to launch your first game or a seasoned pro looking to boost your sales, this episode is packed with valuable tips and tactics to help you succeed. Let's get started and unlock the secrets to selling board games!

 

EPISODE 6 - INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION FOR BOARD GAMES, WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Whether you're an indie game designer looking to take your first steps into the global market or a seasoned publisher aiming to expand your reach, navigating international distribution can be a complex and daunting task. In this episode, we'll uncover the essential aspects of getting your games from your headquarters to the hands of players across the world.

 

We'll explore critical components such as the importance of cultural sensitivity and localization to ensure your game resonates with diverse audiences.

 

EPISODE 7 - REALITY CHECK: CAN YOU EARN A LIVING FROM GAMES?

Making a living through board games or tabletop games might seem like a dream come true, but is it truly feasible? In this episode, we dive deep into the economics and realities of the board game industry. We'll explore what it takes to turn your passion into a full-time career, from designing and publishing your own games to working within the industry in various roles.

 

The episode is hosted by our very own Games business veteran Steve Reece, who has worked in the business of Board Games since the turn of the millennium, thus proving that any idiot can make a living in this realm if they are excessively lucky :)

 

EPISODE 8 – HOW TO FIND & MANAGE RELIABLE GAMES FACTORIES (AVOIDING MAJOR PRODUCTION DISASTERS)

Welcome to Episode 8 of our podcast, where we dive into the crucial topic of finding and managing reliable games factories to avoid major production disasters. In this episode, we unravel the secrets to identifying trustworthy factories and share strategies to ensure smooth production processes. Learn from a Games industry expert's top tips and experiences. Whether you're a seasoned game developer or just starting, this episode is packed with insights to help you navigate the complexities of game production. Stay tuned and let's get started!

 

Watch out for more insightful episodes coming soon. if you have particular topics you think we could record an episode on, please feel free to hit reply, and if we feel we can make an entire episode from your topic we will do our best!

 

 

Sign up to our Free Toy Industry Journal e-newsletter for the latest articles, podcasts, trends and insights into what’s going on in the Global Toy & Games business, just click here to sign up: https://forms.aweber.com/form/54/1325077854.htm 

 

 

WRAPPING UP: TOY & GAMES MARKET 2024, PLUS TOY MANUFACTURING IN VIETNAM, BOARD GAMES SUCCESS FACTORS & WORKING WITH DISTRIBUTORS


Sign up to our Free Toy Industry Journal e-newsletter for the latest articles, podcasts, trends and insights into what’s going on in the Global Toy & Games business, just click here to sign up: https://forms.aweber.com/form/54/1325077854.htm


Well, we nearly made it to the end of 2024. It's been another 'interesting' year in the Toy & Game biz. We'll wait & see the real market data for the full year, but it's going to go down as tough year in general. A weak movie slate, relatively weak consumer demand and a lot of geopolitical turbulence.


On the bright side, expectations were set fairly low in general, and I think that inventory should be reasonable at year end, unlike some of the previous few years. 


The outlook for 2025 is better in my opinion. The movie slates look much stronger, which is a good start point. But also companies invested a lot in their own brands in 2024, and should be able to reap the benefits of that for a few years going forward in terms of higher sales on higher profitability products.


The big news in terms of turbulence heading into 2025 is of course the return of President Trump in the U.S. It was an interesting ride last time around, and this time it certainly looks like he has trade wars and tariffs in mind. Since his re-election, we have been very busy with customers scrambling around for alternative production sources to China. 2025 should be good years for the Toy factories we work with in Vietnam, India and Indonesia.


Anyway, I wanted to close out our content contributions for 2024 by sharing some recently released Videos where I run through some key topics related to Toys & Games:

 

VIETNAM TOY MANUFACTURING

This video looks at where Vietnam sits in the grand scheme of Toy & Game manufacturing. I recorded this on a recent trip to this very intriguing country. It  was hot, so apologies in advance for my attire and bedraggled appearance, but the video gives a good overview of Vietnam's manufacturing and also explains why Vietnam will never be 'The next China' when it comes to production:

 

TOY DISTRIBUTORS WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

This video is hopefully fairly self-explanatory, it looks at working with distributors, the pros, the cons and the things to watch out for. Very few Toy & Game companies have truly global distribution, pretty much every company in our industry relies on distributors to some degree, so this should be relevant for all:

 

BOARD GAMES BUSINESS: SUCCESS FACTOR No. 1

There is one underlying and annoyingly obvious success factor in the business of Games. Watch this video to find out more:


BOARD GAME BIZ Podcast

On that last topic of Games, one of my realisations in 2024 was that I wasn't doing enough work in the Games category, which has always been my favourite space in the broader Toy biz. So, as part of doing more in the Games world, I launched a new podcast recently in case you missed that. There are 7 episodes currently up, and more pre-recorded set to be released soon. So if you want to know more about the commercial side of the (non-digital) Games business, check out the podcast here: https://sites.libsyn.com/556277 

 



Sign up to our Free Toy Industry Journal e-newsletter for the latest articles, podcasts, trends and insights into what’s going on in the Global Toy & Games business, just click here to sign up: https://forms.aweber.com/form/54/1325077854.htm

Artificial Intelligence: How It Will Affect International Distribution For Toys & Games?

Artificial Intelligence: How It Will Affect International Distribution For Toys & Games?


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These are incredible times we’re living through. If artificial intelligence has not yet started to considerably affect your work, then you might want to put your head outside of your bunker!

I watched a Video recently about how quickly AI is advancing, and the speaker highlighted that A.I. large language models like Chat GPT et al currently have an equivalent IQ of about 120, which is higher than the average human – most people have an IQ between 85 and 115 apparently, so we’re already looking at something that is on a par or a bit more intelligent than most human beings. But the speaker went on to say that these large language models now have an IQ of 120 on pretty much everything that humans have ever known, which no human could get anywhere near competing with.


Oh and by the way, I watched this video about a month ago, so the 120 IQ is already higher than that…and in 5- or 10-years time we’ll be looking at an intelligence so far beyond human intelligence that there is no meaningful way to quantify it or compare it with humans.

But aside from the massive societal, ethical and existential questions that raises, professionally we are all trying to embrace and adapt to these incredible new tools that have been placed in our laps, we are also though already having to manage considerable change.


The question is what are the specific implications for the Toy & Game business. This article will look at how A.I. will impact selling your products overseas, and later articles will look at other parts of our business that will be disrupted.

 

THE TRIPOD OF INTERNATIONAL SALES FOR TOYS & GAMES

There are three key elements to successfully selling your Toys & Games into international distribution:


1.      The product

2.      Knowing who to sell to

3.      Human connection, interaction and trust.


Let’s run those one by one:


1.      THE PRODUCT

There are a few rare individuals who can get away with selling crappy products year after year because they are so good at the process of selling, but there are not many of them. The Toy & Game business is a product driven business, and products are in abundance, therefore having a product which has a compelling proposition for distributors, retailers and consumers around the world is critical.

 

We’ll look in more detail in subsequent articles about how A.I. is impacting the product development process, but from the perspective of international or export sales, the major impact of A.I. is as a research tool for both product development and sales people. Whereas once you maybe would have to send a letter, and then eventually could make a phone call, or could visit an annual trade show to find out about local product culture in different countries, now Large Language Models (LLMs) make that process really easy. You can literally just type into one of these LLMs your query and get an ever increasingly better answer. Maybe you won’t get quite as good an answer as the top people in the local market could give you yet, but it’s still remarkably good.

 

So before you even make a product you can investigate cultural fit and try to analyse how likely your product is to resonate in certain key markets to a level far higher than ever before, even on a global level. That’s all without leaving the office!

 

2.      KNOWING WHO TO SELL TO

One of the biggest insider advantages in this business of Toys & Games is knowing who to sell to. It’s knowing which potential partners have good reputations and which have bad ones, it’s knowing who is more likely to be a good fit with your product based on years of experience and learning.


LLMs make one part of that process so much easier – when I first used these systems to research distributors and retailers, the response was kind of useless, it would mix up retailers with distributors, and not provide meaningful, helpful information. Now the quality of answer is really helpful and getting better every day.

So I would say that the era of knowledge-based business advantage creating a ‘Moat’ around your company or around your advantage is nearly gone and will soon likely disappear.


Currently the LLMS I am using are not that great at finding the exact right person to talk to in a company, but that will inevitably come very soon.


The part of knowing who to sell to that LLMs will find much more difficult is our knowledge of personalities and behaviours of key individuals within an organisation. For example, one of the distributors I have known for a long time has two key contacts to submit new products to: the Managing Director/Owner and the Purchasing Manager. It’s the job of the Purchasing Manager to buy in new products for them to distribute, but basically this guy is so inundated that he is very unresponsive, and I am sure doesn’t even look at a lot of communications, he certainly is not communicative back. Now ideally of course you want to pitch new products face to face to try to influence the person with your amazing selling skills and loveable personality (!), but the issue is that in reality we can’t always do that on every project/every product. Because I know how the company works, I understand that if I send a new product or product line direct to the Managing Director, he will just forward it to the Purchasing Manager…BUT critically, the Purchasing Manager will then have to pay it some attention because it was sent to him by his boss, and so he will want to at least have a valid reason for not choosing that product, so he will inevitably have to seriously look at the product or the email. And if the product is compelling, he is therefore going to notice and is more likely to buy the product in to distribute, or on a more micro level is more likely to respond to my query.


Now that’s a very elongated example, but that’s the point…for as long as buying decisions are made by humans, human factors will apply, and as we all know, humans are not entirely rational, there are all kinds of crazy emotional and social factors in human decision making. AND, that’s the part I can’t see LLMs eradicating in a hurry.

 

3.      HUMAN CONNECTION, INTERACTION & TRUST

As the saying goes, people buy from people. In a world where there is a mass of products to choose from, some of what influences the buying decisions are human factors. This isn’t just who your customers like on a personality basis, it’s also about how much they trust you and your company to deliver what you say you will deliver and to help them resolve over stock issues or retailer complaints. In effect, by agreeing to distribute your products, your international distributors are placing their hard-earned customer relationships at jeopardy because they are placing their faith in you and your company to deliver for them.


There is no doubt in my mind that A.I. can and will develop a very persuasive way of interacting with humans, because it can easily work out what is effective and why it was effective, and eventually will learn to manipulate humans into changing their behaviours, but what is much harder is actually building real trust from A.I.

 

Here’s a story I tell a lot (apologies if you’ve read or heard me say this 10 times before), I pitched a product to a distributor the first time I met him, and he really liked it and wanted to run it. But there was always a reason not to, always something else that seemed a bit more attractive. And so I went on presenting this same product to the distributor for 7 years until eventually he went ahead and decided to run the product, which was a great success for him. Now you could argue that it took 7 years to persuade him to sell the product due to my failings as a sales person. But other people bought the same product in Year 1. The issue with this guy was that he didn’t know me, and so while he liked the product, he didn’t trust my ability to deliver it to him with no manufacturing problems, safety infringements or customer service delays which would have damaged his precious customer relationships.

Again, I’m not sure how A.I. would have made that sale…it could have logically outlined the benefits of the product, but how would it persuade that guy to take the leap of faith that was built up over 7 long years?

 

CONCLUSION/NEXT STEPS

Let’s face it, we’re all kind of screwed…LLMS and other forms of A.I. are going to get so good that we are at great risk of becoming both redundant and sidelined in terms of commercial operations. The only question though is how long is that process going to take, and how do we with our more limited intelligence direct and harness this soon to be much greater intelligence to drive our careers and businesses forward?


As I see it, there are two critical elements to your ongoing success across the next wonderfully exciting but also somewhat terrifying decade:


1.      Focus on meaningful human connection – this is still our massive advantage. People buy from people, AND anyone who has been around the block a few times in this business knows that you can’t accurately predict what crazy humans will buy using intelligence!

a.      The one thing that A.I. is not is human. It might be way smarter, more efficient, cheaper and all of that, but it ain’t a person, that will remain humankinds’ advantage for some time.


2.      Be ahead of the Game on exploring and using A.I. versus your competition

a.      The ostrich in the sand approach will not work here. (Some) humans are going to become ludicrously more effective with these A.I. tools like large language models. You need to be in the top few of your peers for exploring and putting these technologies to work in your professional capacity.

Exciting and scary times lie ahead, but one thing I know – the late-night beers at Nuremberg, the intuition to know what your customer wants and how to best manage them, these are things we need to continue to embrace as humanity’s advantage…

…and on the topic of building my own human connections, see you in the bar at the upcoming shows!

 

N.B. This article was written entirely by a maladjusted human with all the shortcomings that entails, although both CHAT GPT & Copilot were asked to give ideas towards the article, they were unusually not that useful on this occasion! All of the images accompanying this article WERE generated by A.I. tools.

 

 

FACTORIES WE REPRESENT

We represent the following factories both in and outside of China. All of these factories have the necessary certifications, have capacity, have a history of successfully supplying other Toy & Game companies and who are very much open for business:

Plastic Toy Factory in China (managed from Hong Kong) – strong track record of decades of supplying Toy companies around the world.

Board Games supplier in China – I have worked with this vendor for 20 years, they have supplied dozens of major & minor customers of mine.

Games factory in Vietnam – supplying cardboard, wood & plastic Games.

Games factory in India – supplying major Toy & Game companies with cardboard & plastic games.

Plastic & Electronic Toy Factory in India – major supplier, having supplied 4 out of 5 of the world’s biggest Toy Cos.

Plush factory in India -leading Plush factory with strong R&D skills.

 

If you would like more information on any of these factories or if you need help with a strategic approach to Sourcing or want to find specific factory types, please feel free to drop me a message.

 

The BOARD GAME BIZ Podcast

Exciting news for the Games business, our all-new BOARD GAME BIZ podcast has now gone live, with 7 Episodes available covering a wide range of commercial topics relating to the business of Board aka Tabletop Games.

If you want to check out this new podcast series, just click here to listen!

 

EPISODE 1 - OVERVIEW OF THE BOARD GAME BUSINESS

In Episode 1, we start with a comprehensive overview of the Board Games business. We explore the key components that drive the board game market. Whether you're an aspiring game creator, a Game entrepreneur, a seasoned professional, or simply a Board Game enthusiast, this episode will provide valuable insights into the commercial intricacies of the industry.

 

EPISODE 2 - UNDERSTANDING HOW BOARD GAMES RETAIL WORKS

Navigating the retail landscape can be complex, but it's essential for the success of any board game. From selecting the right distribution channels to understanding retail pricing strategies, we'll cover it all. We'll also discuss how to establish and maintain relationships with retailers, the importance of packaging and shelf appeal, and how to leverage retail data to boost your game’s performance.

 

Whether you're a game developer looking to get your product on store shelves or a retailer wanting to enhance your board game offerings, this episode is packed with valuable insights to help you succeed. Let’s dive into the world of board games retail and uncover the strategies that can make your game a hit!

 

EPISODE 3 - THE MANY BENEFITS OF PLAYING BOARD GAMES

Board games are not just about fun and entertainment—they offer a multitude of benefits that can enrich people's lives in various ways. From fostering social connections and improving cognitive skills to reducing stress and enhancing creativity, the impact of board games goes far beyond the gaming table. We'll uncover how playing board games can strengthen family bonds, develop strategic thinking, and even boost mental health.

Whether you're a casual player, a dedicated gamer, or someone interested in the positive effects of board games, this episode is packed with insights that will make you appreciate the true value of this timeless hobby. We feel it's important to run through these very many benefits of Games so that you feel real motivation to sell more Games, the more Games you sell, and the more Games people play, the more good we do for humanity!

 

EPISODE 4 - 5 COMMON REASONS WHY PEOPLE FAIL TO GET THEIR GAME TO MARKET

Bringing a board game to market can be an exciting yet challenging journey. Many aspiring game designers face obstacles that prevent their game from reaching store shelves. Today, we'll explore the top five reasons why these efforts often fall short. From common pitfalls in game design and production issues to marketing mistakes and distribution challenges, we'll provide valuable insights to help you avoid these traps and successfully launch your game.

 

EPISODE 5 - HOW TO SELL BOARD GAMES

Today, we'll explore the essential steps to successfully market and sell your board game. From understanding your target audience and crafting compelling pitches to leveraging social media and maximizing retail opportunities, we'll cover all the bases. We'll also discuss common pitfalls and how to avoid them, ensuring that your game not only reaches the market but thrives.

 Whether you're a newcomer eager to launch your first game or a seasoned pro looking to boost your sales, this episode is packed with valuable tips and tactics to help you succeed. Let's get started and unlock the secrets to selling board games!

 

EPISODE 6 - INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION FOR BOARD GAMES, WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Whether you're an indie game designer looking to take your first steps into the global market or a seasoned publisher aiming to expand your reach, navigating international distribution can be a complex and daunting task. In this episode, we'll uncover the essential aspects of getting your games from your headquarters to the hands of players across the world.

 

We'll explore critical components such as the importance of cultural sensitivity and localization to ensure your game resonates with diverse audiences.

 

EPISODE 7 - REALITY CHECK: CAN YOU EARN A LIVING FROM GAMES?

Making a living through board games or tabletop games might seem like a dream come true, but is it truly feasible? In this episode, we dive deep into the economics and realities of the board game industry. We'll explore what it takes to turn your passion into a full-time career, from designing and publishing your own games to working within the industry in various roles.

 

The episode is hosted by our very own Games business veteran Steve Reece, who has worked in the business of Board Games since the turn of the millennium, thus proving that any idiot can make a living in this realm if they are excessively lucky :)

 

Watch out for more insightful episodes coming soon. if you have particular topics you think we could record an episode on, please feel free to hit reply, and if we feel we can make an entire episode from your topic we will do our best!

 

 

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS FACING THE TOY & GAME BUSINESS

The Toy business does not live and work in a bubble. We are influenced and impacted by what is going on in the world around us. Which today means that those working in the Toy industry are faced with a more complicated macro environment, in which many international norms we had come to take for granted are being challenged and this is in turn increasing risks of disruption for our businesses. This article was recently published on The Spirit Of Play Blog, part of the official website of the Spielwarenmesse, the world’s biggest Toy trade show.

 

Sign up to our Free Toy Industry Journal e-newsletter for the latest articles, podcasts, trends and insights into what’s going on in the Global Toy & Games business, just click here to sign up: https://forms.aweber.com/form/54/1325077854.htm 

 

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